Middle East is a complex political world, made up of intrigues and betrayals. Saudi leaders are well aware. They have been able to foil all attempts to destabilize their wealthy monarchy by their enemies as well as their "friends". Riyad, however, has been trapped in Yemen. It will be exciting to see if they will survive this final blow: a new Islamic State is born in the Arabian Peninsula.
The united Republic of Yemen, supporting Iraq during the first Gulf War, in 1990, made a bad choice. United States and Saudi Arabia have since sought a revenge. Perhaps Washington and Riyadh are not strangers to the many troubles that broke out in this country, formerly called "Happy Arabia." Since the 2000s, revolts have erupted everywhere against the government of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh as much as the government of the current president, Marshal Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, backed by the Saudis. The Shiites Houthis hold Aden, and much of the western part of the country, with the support of Tehran; Southern Yemen would like to regain its independence; last but not least, Al Qaeda and the Islamic state are rising and are already controlling several parts of the territory.
In November 2009, Saudi Arabia is obliged to intervene militarily on its border against the Shi'ite rebellion in Yemen. Oddly enough, in 2011, an "Arab Spring" is timely launched in Aden and the main cities of the country. It is the same kind of "spontaneous" protest that overthrows the governments in Tunisia and Egypt at the same time ... President Ali Abdallah Saleh, the same man who had dared to support Saddam Hussein during the first Gulf War, makes all possible concessions. Nothing works. When he escapes from an assassination attempt, he resolves to sign his resignation sheet, kindly presented by the Saudis. He leaves his country to be hospitalised in Riyadh, then, is exiled in the United States.
End of the story ? No, the man understands that he had been betrayed. He orders his partisans to favor the Houthist rebellion, which had come from the north of the country. He also has contacts with Al Qaeda Islamists, and Yemeni fighters from Daech. Today, it is a war of the Yemenis, from all sides, against the western destabilization of the country.
Thus, in supporting the arrogant Saudi military campaign against the Houthi Shiites and the al Qaeda jihadists in Yemen, do Americans suspect that they reinforce the legitimacy of the rebellion in the eyes of the Arabian Peninsula muslims ? Doesn't Washington seek to destabilize the Arabian Peninsula? USA and the Gulf oil monarchies look like mice who would be friends with a cat ...
Thus, in March 2015, when the Obama administration supports the military intervention of the Sunni Arab coalition, led by Riyadh, why do Americans simply provide supplies, logistical support and few weapons ? Washington did nothing to help Saudis to crush the rebellion in Yemen.
Were Saudi leaders intentionally misinformed? They, apparently, initially thought they would get an easy victory, getting rid of the pro-Saddam Hussein government of Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Houthis Shiite rebellion. In fact, they were faced with determined men, supported by Iranian commandos and, already, a worrying bridgehead of the Islamic State. Saudi Arabia has been ambushed.
Since the beginning of the war, Saudi Arabia has been bombing Yemen, spending $ 200 million a day, but scarcely got more than becoming a war criminal. 10,000 Yemeni civilians were killed, 3 million fled the fighting. 60,000 children have already died of malnutrition. 60% of the population survives thanks to food aid. Yemen is the biggest food security emergency in the world. The Wahhabi dynasty may live with this appalling humanitarian record, but can it survive to this new Afghanistan on its borders, already threatening its territory?
Riyadh didn't get a decisive victory, because it would be necessary to engage massively its troops on the ground and accept huge casualties, even a defeat. All the conflicts in the Middle East are leading to the most radical movements. Hezbollah did not exist in Lebanon before the Israeli invasion of 1982 and Al-Qaeda was barely present in Iraq until 2003. Today, Hezbollah is the dominant military force in Lebanon and we know the successes of Sunni fundamentalists in the Middle East. In Yemen, it is now Yemeni Hezbollah, that is to say Iran, which is permanently settled in the Arabian Peninsula. In the Sunni camp, Al Qaeda, has grown from a few hundred fighters in 2009 to more than 4,000 today. With the end of the cycle of the Islamic State in Mosul, Islamists from the Arabian Peninsula are now redirected to Arabia ... Saudis are trapped. Either the Saudi army is massively committing itself to land, trying to crush its enemies, with the risk of a terrible defeat, very perilous for the Saud dynasty. Either the Saudis negotiate peace and let the Shiite Houthis take part to power in Yemen. This second solution is probably not one for the Saud, official guardians of Sunni Islam. The fate of the war could thus lead to a complete destabilization of the region, even the destruction of Arabian Peninsula countries, as in Iraq, as in Libya. We will eventually know who's behind that when they seize Arabian oil wells.