Skip to main content

A new Islamic State is born in Arabia


Middle East is a complex political world, made up of intrigues and betrayals. Saudi leaders are well aware. They have been able to foil all attempts to destabilize their wealthy monarchy by their enemies as well as their "friends". Riyad, however, has been trapped in Yemen. It will be exciting to see if they will survive this final blow: a new Islamic State is born in the Arabian Peninsula.

The united Republic of Yemen, supporting Iraq during the first Gulf War, in 1990, made a bad choice. United States and Saudi Arabia have since sought a revenge. Perhaps Washington and Riyadh are not strangers to the many troubles that broke out in this country, formerly called "Happy Arabia." Since the 2000s, revolts have erupted everywhere against the government of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh as much as the government of the current president, Marshal Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, backed by the Saudis. The Shiites Houthis hold Aden, and much of the western part of the country, with the support of Tehran; Southern Yemen would like to regain its independence; last but not least, Al Qaeda and the Islamic state are rising and are already controlling several parts of the territory.

In November 2009, Saudi Arabia is obliged to intervene militarily on its border against the Shi'ite rebellion in Yemen. Oddly enough, in 2011, an "Arab Spring" is timely launched in Aden and the main cities of the country. It is the same kind of "spontaneous" protest that overthrows the governments in Tunisia and Egypt at the same time ... President Ali Abdallah Saleh, the same man who had dared to support Saddam Hussein during the first Gulf War,  makes all possible concessions. Nothing works. When he escapes from an assassination attempt, he resolves to sign his resignation sheet, kindly presented by the Saudis. He leaves his country to be hospitalised in Riyadh, then, is exiled in the United States.
End of the story ? No, the man understands that he had been betrayed. He orders his partisans to favor the Houthist rebellion, which had come from the north of the country. He also has contacts with Al Qaeda Islamists, and Yemeni fighters from Daech. Today, it is a war of the Yemenis, from all sides, against the western destabilization of the country.

Thus, in supporting the arrogant Saudi military campaign against the Houthi Shiites and the al Qaeda jihadists in Yemen, do Americans suspect that they reinforce the legitimacy of the rebellion in the  eyes of the Arabian Peninsula muslims ? Doesn't Washington seek to destabilize the Arabian Peninsula? USA and the Gulf oil monarchies look like mice who would be friends with a cat ...

Thus, in March 2015, when the Obama administration supports the military intervention of the Sunni Arab coalition, led by Riyadh, why do Americans simply provide supplies, logistical support and few weapons ? Washington did nothing to help Saudis to crush the rebellion in Yemen.
Were Saudi leaders intentionally misinformed? They, apparently, initially thought they would get an easy victory, getting rid of the pro-Saddam Hussein government of Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Houthis Shiite rebellion. In fact, they were faced with determined men, supported by Iranian commandos and, already, a worrying bridgehead of the Islamic State. Saudi Arabia has been ambushed.

Since the beginning of the war, Saudi Arabia has been bombing Yemen, spending $ 200 million a day, but scarcely got more than becoming a war criminal. 10,000 Yemeni civilians were killed, 3 million fled the fighting. 60,000 children have already died of malnutrition. 60% of the population survives thanks to food aid. Yemen is the biggest food security emergency in the world. The Wahhabi dynasty may live with this appalling humanitarian record, but can it survive to this new Afghanistan on its borders, already threatening its territory?

Riyadh didn't get a decisive victory, because it would be necessary to engage massively its troops on the ground and accept huge casualties, even a defeat. All the conflicts in the Middle East are leading to the most radical movements. Hezbollah did not exist in Lebanon before the Israeli invasion of 1982 and Al-Qaeda was barely present in Iraq until 2003. Today, Hezbollah is the dominant military force in Lebanon and we know the successes of Sunni fundamentalists in the Middle East. In Yemen, it is now Yemeni Hezbollah, that is to say Iran, which is permanently settled in the Arabian Peninsula. In the Sunni camp, Al Qaeda, has grown from a few hundred fighters in 2009 to more than 4,000 today. With the end of the cycle of the Islamic State in Mosul, Islamists from the Arabian Peninsula are now redirected to Arabia ... Saudis are trapped. Either the Saudi army is massively committing itself to land, trying to crush its enemies, with the risk of a terrible defeat, very perilous for the Saud dynasty. Either the Saudis negotiate peace and let the Shiite Houthis take part to power in Yemen. This second solution is probably not one for the Saud, official guardians of Sunni Islam. The fate of the war could thus lead to a complete destabilization of the region, even the destruction of Arabian Peninsula countries, as in Iraq, as in Libya. We will eventually know who's behind that when they seize Arabian oil wells.


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

South Africa : Will ANC survive to 2019 ?

After twenty-three years of power, in spite of beautiful democrat intentions, the record of the ANC governments in South Africa is mixed: the population is poorer than in the days of apartheid, the state is failing, Corrupted are politicians. Crime has exploded and racial hatred poisons everyday life. South Africa has become an ordinary African country.

The history of South Africa is that of rivalry between three groups: Africans, British origin citizens and Franco-Dutch: the Boers. African population was first enslaved by the army of Her Majesty. Despite the courageous resistance, and a defeat inflicted to the British army by Zulu warriors at the Battle of Isandhlwana (January 22, 1879), African populations were subjected to white power until the end of the twentieth century. Then, the British opposed settlers of Franco-Dutch origin: the Boers.
In 1835, the Boers left the Cape Colony to migrate to the interior of South Africa and escape British domination. It was the "Grand Trek&q…

China is ready to govern the world

"Older countries have glasses to see the future," might have said a Chinese proverb. President Xi Jinping drew inspiration from the legendary Silk Road, which ensured China's prosperity for a millennium, to launch the most ambitious economic development plan in the history of the 21st century: "One Belt One Road "(OBOR). On one side, a terrestrial "belt" which connects the interior of China with Europe, by Central Asia and Turkey; On the other side, a maritime "road" linking the Chinese coastline to the East of Africa, passing through the Arabic Gulf countries. It is the "New Silk Road" which formalizes the entry of China into the club of the great superpowers.

Indeed, OBOR materializes the political and commercial alliances that China, the rising power of the 21st century, has patiently woven for decades. For several years, Chinese companies have been building pipelines and fiber optic networks across Eurasia and Africa. Far from …

France and Australia are ready for a war in the Pacific.

France is a small country ... of 11 million square kilometers, thanks to the 200 thousand Exclusive Economic Zone that surround the smallest of its islets. French Polynesia alone comprises over 100 islands and atolls lost in the Pacific, an area twenty times larger than the United Kingdom. Yet, at the end of the Cold War, Paris was thinking of getting rid of these lost territories in the Pacific. Didn't the Noumea Treaty offer a referendum on the independence of New Caledonia for 2018 ? Today, the deal has changed. Paris has good reasons to keep its territories in the Pacific.

China is investing heavily in the area, offering scholarships in Chinese universities, lending money to finance infrastructure projects throughout the region. The beneficiary countries must accept, in return, Chinese immigrants. In Tonga Islands, over the last decade, the Chinese have taken over more than 80% of the stores.
China has, of course, also invested in French Polynesia, technical stop, for her, to …