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Will Beijing invade Taiwan?

Chinese people love symbolic dates. 2021 will be the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, which Beijing would like to celebrate with Taiwan returned under its yoke. But peaceful reunification seems unlikely. In Taiwan, barely 10% of Taiwanese want reunification.

Beijing, in its view, has done everything: China has facilitated trade and investment between the two countries, encouraged cultural exchanges and warmed relations between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang. Now, Beijing is getting impatient. Chinese TV talk about invasion, broadcast images of large-scale military maneuvers to intimidate Taiwan. Last January, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning went straight into the Taiwan Strait. Beijing was directly threatening President Tsai of Taiwan at the very moment he was contacting the newly elected President Donald Trump. Yet Taiwan still refuses to bend.

A Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, speaks of "One China, Two Systems", as for Hong Kong. But Chinese officials intend, as in Hong Kong, to purge the island of democracy.
The use of force to incorporate Taiwan is envisaged. The Chinese People's Army would outshine the forces of Taiwan. But an enormous invasion by sea would remain perilous. And then it would remain to know how the United States, led by Donald Trump, would react and how to defeat them in the event of direct confrontation.
Finally, there would be repercussions in Japan, the Philippines, India, Australia or even Vietnam. These regional rivals could, along with the United States, create a military coalition against China.
Almost all of these countries are facing a territorial dispute with China. They are therefore very attentive to China's attitude towards Taiwan. China is committed to resolving territorial disputes peacefully. A China that invades Taiwan, would therefore betray its commitments and scare these countries, which could join a military coalition against China, as a preventive measure.
If war broke out, besides the security of its borders, China would certainly see its economic growth affected, and thus its social peace compromised.
The specter of civil war is traumatic for China, which would quickly return to the pre-1949 chaos before the Communist Party was able to end the civil war and control the entire territory. China would lose everything. Taiwan probably does not deserve that China implodes. Reunification shall wait until 2049.


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