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Showing posts from May, 2017

Will Brexit lead to the end of UK?

The European alliance offers an opportunity for small countries to emancipate themselves from the tutelage of cumbersome neighbors. After the Brexit, Northern Ireland (Ulster) and Scotland see the claim of their European identity as a means of freeing themselves from London rule.

The Brexit could decide the Northern Irish to leave the United Kingdom and unite with the South as a European nation. If, on the contrary, Northern Ireland chose to remain within the United Kingdom, this could lead to border problems between Ulster and Ireland, and perhaps even challenge civil peace obtained, in 1998, by the Good Friday Agreement.

There is one detail that everyone forgets: the 1998 peace agreement provides the opportunity for the 1.8 million Northern Irish to hold British and Irish dual citizenship. The Irish passport is a European passport. 56% of Northern Irish chose Irish citizenship. Since then, there has been an upward trend: 3,973 applications for Irish citizenship in January 2016, 7,045 …

China is ready to govern the world

"Older countries have glasses to see the future," might have said a Chinese proverb. President Xi Jinping drew inspiration from the legendary Silk Road, which ensured China's prosperity for a millennium, to launch the most ambitious economic development plan in the history of the 21st century: "One Belt One Road "(OBOR). On one side, a terrestrial "belt" which connects the interior of China with Europe, by Central Asia and Turkey; On the other side, a maritime "road" linking the Chinese coastline to the East of Africa, passing through the Arabic Gulf countries. It is the "New Silk Road" which formalizes the entry of China into the club of the great superpowers.

Indeed, OBOR materializes the political and commercial alliances that China, the rising power of the 21st century, has patiently woven for decades. For several years, Chinese companies have been building pipelines and fiber optic networks across Eurasia and Africa. Far from …

Drug cartels rule Mexico

Mexico has lost the war against drug cartels. Mexican drug traffickers are the largest suppliers of heroin, methamphetamines, cocaine, heroin and Fentanyl, a more powerful synthetic opioid than heroin to the North American continent. Cocaine, produced in Bolivia, Colombia and Peru, also passes safely through Mexico. The tens of billions of dollars that this brings to the cartels, every year, open all the doors, both north and south of the Rio Grande.

The largest current cartel remains Sinaloa, the "historic" organization, formerly headed by the famous "El Chapo" Guzman, arrested and extradited to the United States. The organization maintains strong international networks. The other cartels are Jalisco, the rising challenger, Juarez, the long-standing rival cartel of Sinaloa, based in the central state of Chihuahua, on the border between New Mexico and Texas, the Tamaulipas cartel, Los Zetas or the Beltran-Leyva Organization. From all these cartels can emerge new le…

Will Beijing invade Taiwan?

Chinese people love symbolic dates. 2021 will be the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, which Beijing would like to celebrate with Taiwan returned under its yoke. But peaceful reunification seems unlikely. In Taiwan, barely 10% of Taiwanese want reunification.

Beijing, in its view, has done everything: China has facilitated trade and investment between the two countries, encouraged cultural exchanges and warmed relations between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang. Now, Beijing is getting impatient. Chinese TV talk about invasion, broadcast images of large-scale military maneuvers to intimidate Taiwan. Last January, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning went straight into the Taiwan Strait. Beijing was directly threatening President Tsai of Taiwan at the very moment he was contacting the newly elected President Donald Trump. Yet Taiwan still refuses to bend.

A Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, speaks of "One China, Two Systems", as for Hong…

France and Australia are ready for a war in the Pacific.

France is a small country ... of 11 million square kilometers, thanks to the 200 thousand Exclusive Economic Zone that surround the smallest of its islets. French Polynesia alone comprises over 100 islands and atolls lost in the Pacific, an area twenty times larger than the United Kingdom. Yet, at the end of the Cold War, Paris was thinking of getting rid of these lost territories in the Pacific. Didn't the Noumea Treaty offer a referendum on the independence of New Caledonia for 2018 ? Today, the deal has changed. Paris has good reasons to keep its territories in the Pacific.

China is investing heavily in the area, offering scholarships in Chinese universities, lending money to finance infrastructure projects throughout the region. The beneficiary countries must accept, in return, Chinese immigrants. In Tonga Islands, over the last decade, the Chinese have taken over more than 80% of the stores.
China has, of course, also invested in French Polynesia, technical stop, for her, to …

Central African Republic, the diamonds of the jihad

The campaigns never stop burning in Central African Republic. Since the Muslim rebels of Séléka, meaning the "coalition" in Sango, overthrew the corrupt government of François Bozizé in March 2013, the Central African Republic is no longer able to emerge from the spiral of violence. Rebel groups, composed of Chadian, Libyan and Sudanese Muslim mercenaries, officially dissolved after Bozizé left power. But today, these men continue to loot the country, probably secretly encouraged by their former sponsors. Groups have quickly recreated themselves, under the name of ex-Sélékas, and continue to rage all over the country, between jihad and big banditry.

It is known that the Séléka was financed by diamond manufacturers, in order to get rid of the former president Bozizé, who used improperly of their stocks. The diamonds given to the rebels always find buyers in Sudan... Omar el-Bashir, the Sudanese president, a supporter of brutal Islamization in his country, obviously supports …

Iran presidential election 2017 : "between worse and bad."

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has just been re-elected on 19 May. The man stands as a reformer, promises political openness, freer access to Internet, revitalizing the economy, ending religious excesses. Actions will probably be less ambitious. Sadegh Zibakalam, professor of politics at the University of Tehran, summed up the challenge for the Iranian population: "choose between worse and bad."

Rouhani 's opponent in these elections, Islamic judge Raisi was a member of the "Death Committee" in 1987, responsible for the execution of more than 4,000 political prisoners. This bloody episode had provoked the outrage, even of the appointed successor of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Ali Montazeri: "You have committed the greatest crime in the history of the Islamic Republic." A government led by President Raisi could have frightened the proponents of a more liberal regime in Iran.

But no illusion there, Hassan Rouhani is also a creature of the I…

Turks worth more than Kurds

Turks worth more than Kurds
President Donald Trump could not let the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan throw himself further into the arms of Russia and China. He shot down the Kurdish armament card to force Ankara to return. The Turks now want to urgently change the American plan to arm the Kurdish fighters in Syria. Indeed, a well-armed Kurdish people, capable of defending themselves, would still remove Erdogan from his great dream of reforming the Ottoman Empire.
After the US-led coup against Erdogan during Barack Obama's tenure, relations between Ankara and Washington were strained ... The people who helped the candidate Trump come to power, Place of the actions intended to enter, as quickly as possible, into the good graces of the Turkish president. For those who believed that Mr. Trump's election was a surprise, a firm owned by Michael Flynn, a former Trump security advisor, had received more than $ 500,000 during the election campaign, To discredit a political rival …